Ukraine’s new counter-offensive may pivot the war in Kyiv’s favor. Beginning in early June, they attacked various points on the 600-mile frontline, with the city of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine being strategically important. The reason why Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia is so important is that it is defending the Sea of Azov. Taking the Sea of Azov from the Russians will cut off the supply line going from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don to Crimea (annexed by Russia in 2014), which is intensely defended by huge garrisons. This would leave the Crimean Peninsula isolated from Moscow, making it an easy target for Ukraine.

Not much progress had been made on the front, excluding the villages of Robotyne and Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region. There had been confirmed sightings of Ukrainian troops breaching Russian defenses despite obstacles. Unfortunately for Kyiv, Russia had seen this coming long before the offensive had started. They have spent quite a while building formidable fortifications, with an anti-tank ditch, dragon’s teeth defenses, and a trench network with artillery behind it, all spaced out across 2,000 feet worth of minefields. Their first attempt at breaking through in early June failed, with terrible casualties. Since then, Ukraine has resorted to removing the landmines on foot. 

Meanwhile, huge progress had been made in Crimea, with successful attacks from Ukraine, hitting Russian ships and missiles. With estimated billions of dollars worth of damage done, they may even retake the peninsula, annexed in 2014 by Russia. These operations go perfectly together with the counter-offensive in the south. Crimea is basically a fortress though; so Kyiv will have to remember to tread with caution.